Things to Think About

 Here's an update on the crazy weather we're being treated to. I'm copying from  Facebook:

The first post is from this morning, a little before 9:00 AM.

Miriam Iwashige

1deospSi1mai4ha18c40  · 

Shared with Public

Ninety-one degrees yesterday; it's snowing big flakes now. A fierce thunderstorm, with hail, last night. High winds (gusts to 60 MPH) all day yesterday. I'd be really happy for spring to put on a nice gentle smiling face about now. #springweatherdrama

The second post was several hours later.

We had a very welcome .6 inch of moisture since yesterday. I have no idea how that was divided between rain, hail, and snow, but it's a wonderful development, in any case.

BTW, if you're local and live quite a long ways west from the weather station at the Hutchinson airport, you might enjoy keeping track of real-time weather that's recorded at Miller Seed Farm's weather station. You can access it on their website.

Obviously, you won't get predictions like you do from NOAA Wichita, but, since we live three miles directly south of that station, I believe it reflects current temperature and wind conditions at our place more accurately than a station that is probably between 15 and 20 miles away. You'll also find seasonal totals for precipitation, high and low temperatures for the midnight to midnight period, and high wind gusts.

I believe the seasonal precipitation total you'll see now reflects how much we've had since March 1. June 1 will begin a new season. In other words, a new season starts every three months, beginning with the first day of the month in which a new season begins. If someone can confirm this, it would be welcome. Here's the website:

MILLERSEEDFARMS.COM

Home - millerseedfarms.com

cxcxcxcxcxcc

*************

This is a re-post from Heather Cox Richardson. Her central thesis in this column keeps growing on me: Unfettered capitalism cannot be trusted to make life good for most of the people under this system. Neither can any other economic system be trusted to accomplish this, so what is left (outside of applying the principles of the Kingdom of God) is a combination of various approaches that restrain the excesses and compensate for the shortfalls. I believe that many Christian people are remiss in opposing regulation out of hand, just as they are remiss in opposing offering the disadvantaged a helping hand.

This is a short column, and very easy to follow. Please read it.

*****************

The next section copies a post and comment thread that I saw today. I don't really have an opinion on any of this content (except that the tone is largely refreshing), so I'll leave names in place so you can give them credit for whatever wisdom they share. I do think that we're long overdue for getting more creative about how to provide homes for people who need them. I'd be in favor of making it a focus in church brotherhoods--a prayer focus, with bright minds, formal training, experience, cooperation, and care for each other all being brought to bear on the challenge.

Shane Iwashige

opes61u2hahi6747f5  · 

Interesting data on the changing housing market and buying environment. In November of 2021, a 360 month, $200,000 mortgage would cost $856.75 per month, with total interest over the life of the loan of $108,430.33 (based on one local bank's rates). Today, that $200,000 mortgage will cost you $1,119.94/mo, and you'll pay $203,179.29 in interest over the life of the loan. If $856.75 is what you can afford per month, that will now only get you a $153,000 mortgage. Check on your friends trying to buy a house-they're not all OK. Every month they've lost out in scoring a contract on a house in this price range has cost almost $20,000, and the chances of succeeding keep getting slimmer as the approval amount gets smaller everyday. The supply and demand market dynamics will keep prices high and rising, while homeownership gets less attainable for many people. By historical standards we're still at very low interest rates. The difference is the principal amounts you start with.

26Dorcas Iwashige, Josh Yoder and 24 others

11 Comments

4 Shares

Like

Comment

Share

11 Comments

• Joe Kuepfer

  Ouch

  • Like
  • Reply
  • 6h
• Kayla Adame

  I feel this!!!

  • Like
  • Reply
  • 6h
• Jessica Schmidt

  Yeah it hurts people pretty bad!

  • Like
  • Reply
  • 6h
• Kris Schmucker

  Will the housing market ever correct itself? Or is this the new normal?

  • Like
  • Reply
  • 5h
  • Shane Iwashige

    Kris Schmucker Billions of dollars in the market ride on knowing the answer to that question... I don't know, but I'm inclined to think values may soften slightly, but we've been underbuilding for years, and it is finally catching up with us. I'm not optimistic they will come back down very far. Materials markets have inflated so much that now build cost is less feasible. Even if many of the inflationary pressures are temporary, I think they will be in place long enough that labor and compensation will have to adjust and the bar will stay where it is long term. I think the Fed was actually right initially when they said inflation was temporary, but I think it stayed long enough that everything has to rise to meet it. It feels like we're in a dangerous wage/price whirlwind, and I have little idea what will stop it.

    

    3

    • Like
    • Reply
    • 5h
  • John Thompson

    Kris Schmucker Simply, yes. Question is where will it correct to and when. Inflation is driving up prices everywhere with housing being no exception. The Fed is raising interest rates to combat that inflation. As mentioned we are still at historically low rates. The other consideration is we are headed into a recession. What does the Fed do with rates during a recession? They lower interest rates. In November 2021 they wouldn't be able to go much lower with the impending recession on the near horizon. So as silly as it sounds, rates have to go up before they can come back down. Couple all of that with low inventory (underbuilding) and you get the environment we are in now.
  • • • Caleb E. Yoder

        Shane Iwashige you're hitting on something that I've been thinking about quite a bit recently. Whether it's the stock market, or the housing market, or the general economic expectations... psychology is a huge piece of the puzzle. Sometimes prices in certain sectors rise just because there's broad-based expectations that they will rise... a self-fulfilling prophecy. It remains to be seen how much of the increase in retail prices is really being driven by increasing raw materials and labor costs, and how much of it is opportunistic by big players who feel they can get away with it at the moment. In my world, the cost of seed and fertilizer has skyrocketed far above the increase in raw material and energy costs, giving credence to the hypothesis that agriculture input pricing has more to do with commodity prices then actual production costs.

        • Like
        • Reply
        • 4h
      • Caleb E. Yoder

        Shane Iwashige Its fascinating to me how quickly things change. For years the business model targeting the US consumer was to gain market share by driving prices ever lower. It feels like that playbook has kind of gone out the window.

        • Like
        • Reply
        • 3h
      • Shane Iwashige

        Caleb E. Yoder I think one interpretation is that we're realizing that most of our prices are dependent on cheap labor, here and abroad. In a rapidly expanding economy here there is a huge labor shortage and employees can work wherever they want to, there is massive pressure on the cost of labor. Some of that is long overdue, but it changed so fast that it is putting many employers in a position that they can't afford to lose people because they can't replace them, but they can't afford to pay them what it takes to keep them. Many employers are choosing to pay people what it takes and raise prices to compensate for it, but that means we have years worth of wage compression springing on the economy in a very short amount of time. And the cycle continues...

        • Like
        • Reply
        • 3h

      Active

      Write a reply…

      
      
    • David Shenk

      In a nutshell, the Feds can't print more land like they've been printing money (at historic levels the past two years). This makes real estate an exponentially more valuable asset than cash, and everyone wants to get in on it.

      • Like
      • Reply
      • 43m
      • Shane Iwashige

        David Shenk This is an interesting take, and there's certainly some truth to it! I would say, though, that some of the underlying causes of the housing market spike have been in the works for awhile, and we're experiencing a perfect storm.

******************

I read a sickening report from local law enforcement yesterday, made more so because I thought I recognized the name of the alleged offender. Our families have attended some of the same small group events in years gone by. I know the Christian parents well enough to know that this must be heartbreaking for them, as would be the case for any concerned parent. Years ago they had adopted three children--siblings, I believe. The person charged was one of them. What sense does one make of things that go so horribly wrong, in spite of some of the people involved being innocent and others surely having done a lot of things right?

. . . is being booked into the Reno County Correctional Facility on the charges of 3 Counts of Rape, Aggravated Criminal Sodomy and 2 Counts of Aggravated Indecent Liberties with a Child. This investigation started with an incident reported to our Patrol Deputies recently. After further investigation by Detectives another victim and more incidents were reported. As the investigation continues, it is suspected there are several more victims and incidents which may have occurred. . . . is being held on a $500,000 bond. As always this case is still under investigation with no further information available at this time and all suspects are presumed innocent unless or until proven guilty.