Phenology and Tragedy

This time of year is optimal for cultivating an interest in phenology.  Doing so now will enhance your observation skills and enjoyment of this season for the rest of your life.  For practical purposes, in this season of the year, you can think of phenology as noting and recording signs of spring.

Several of the underlying assumptions in a study of phenology are these (off the top of my head):

1.  Natural events usually happen in the same order, but not necessarily on the same date every year.
2.  Noting one event makes possible prediction of a later event, but its exact time of occurrence cannot be forecast.
3.  Observable events occur based on what has happened in the past, and cannot be used to predict what will happen in the future (except for the sequence prediction noted above).  I don't put any confidence, for example in predicting what kind of winter we'll have based on how caterpillars look or when the frost flowers bloom.
4.  Phenology is useful for knowing the proper timing for human-initiative events such as planting a garden.  If a certain stage on the common lilac plant corresponds with soil temperatures that are right for seed germination of certain garden crops, being able to discern the proper timing for garden tasks is as simple as keeping an eye on the lilac shrub (remember though that a late freeze might nip both the lilac buds and whatever is already growing in your garden).
5.  Aldo Leopold is known as the "Father" of the science of phenology.  He was a lifelong naturalist and a long-time teacher at the University of Wisconsin.  His most famous writing is found in A Sand County Almanac.
6.  Rural mail carriers created one of the first organized networks of phenological observers.  Daily routines maintained over long periods of time made possible systematic observations, which eventually provided significant data.
7.  Phenology is not to be confused with phrenology--a pseudo-science based on the shape of a person's head, etc.

This year, so far, in making phenology observations, I have noted that the maple tree visible from my "computer window" began to sport bright red buds on  February 6.  Three days ago, I spotted the first dandelion in bloom.  Two days ago, I noted that the lilac leaf buds are beginning to show a bit of green.  The garlic that has unaccountably been perpetuating itself around the now-dysfunctional hydrant  near the back door has begun to grow and is now about three inches tall.  My birdwatching nephews note the date of the first yearly sighting of migratory birds.

Anyone who would like help with organizing a phenology project (teachers/homeschoolers?) will find help at Project BudBurst at this site.  Another fun related project would be to collect sayings that reflect folk wisdom that express correlations between natural phenomena and human behavior.  I remember that we used to be allowed to go barefoot when the leaves on the hedge (Osage Orange) trees had just begun to enlarge (as big as a squirrel's ear?).

Paying attention to phenology is really as simple as paying attention to what is present in the natural world.  Mindfulness about what can be observed makes possible practical benefits from the observations.

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A tragedy yesterday at Hesston, KS made world news.  The town is located in the county next to ours, and is home to a large Mennonite community and a two-year Mennonite college.  John, a young-married man from our church is in nursing school there.

A former employee at Excel returned to the mower factory employing over 1,000 people and opened fire with an assault rifle.  At least four people died and 17 were injured.  Some were injured earlier by the same shooter at one of three other sites.  When an officer showed up at Excel, the gunman aimed at the officer and fired.  The officer returned fire and killed the attacker.

Hiromi  read about it on Japan Yahoo this morning.