Making a Point

Our local newspaper has most of the front page taken up with information on a contest which carries a one billion dollar reward for anyone who gets all the details right.  Specifically, to win the prize, a person must correctly choose the winners of all the college basketball games in the NCAA tournament, which happens this week.  It involves 64 teams.  As you already know if you've been reading this blog, my knowledge of and interest in this matter hovers very nearly around zero.

Over supper this evening I told Hiromi I thought it might be fun to enter the contest.  If I won anything at all  (very highly unlikely, of course) it would be a great way of poking a little fun at anyone who takes such matters seriously.  At that point, Hiromi told me a little story which I had completely forgotten, if I ever heard it.

At his workplace one year, someone organized a "name-the-winner" contest for a major sporting event.  Hiromi can't even recall which sport it was.  Without knowing anything about the odds or the teams, to join the fun, Hiromi paid his $2.00 and made his guess.  He was the winner of the $100.00 prize.  The next year, no one allowed Hiromi to enter the contest.

If anyone wins the one billion dollar prize, they will have done so against these odds:  one chance in 9,223,372,036,854,780,000.  This is about one in 9.2 quintillion.

On second thought, I think I'll just leave the matter of making a point with Hiromi.